Proactive monitoring and adaptive management of social carrying capacity in Arches National Park: an application of computer simulation modeling.

Public visits to parks and protected areas continue to increase and may threaten the integrity of natural and cultural resources and the quality of the visitor experience. Scientists and managers have adopted the concept of carrying capacity to address the impacts of visitor use. In the context of outdoor recreation, the social component of carrying capacity refers to the level of visitor use that can be accommodated in parks and protected areas without diminishing the quality of the visitor experience to an unacceptable degree. This study expands and illustrates the use of computer simulation modeling as a tool for proactive monitoring and adaptive management of social carrying capacity at Arches National Park. A travel simulation model of daily visitor use throughout the Park's road and trail network and at selected attraction sites was developed, and simulations were conducted to estimate a daily social carrying capacity for Delicate Arch, an attraction site in Arches National Park, and for the Park as a whole. Further, a series of simulations were conducted to estimate the effect of a mandatory shuttle bus system on daily social carrying capacity of Delicate Arch to illustrate how computer simulation modeling can be used as a tool to facilitate adaptive management of social carrying capacity.