Analysis model for planning chemical dependence treatment systems.

Statewide needs assessments commonly generate a single estimate of the number of persons needing chemical dependence treatment. The present analysis utilizes help-seeking behavior models and patient placement concepts to break a single statewide need estimate into operational units of services and costs that can be used for planning and resource allocation. The analyses are presented as allocation models for placements, service populations, service capacities, and costs. The guide was tested using state data for a target year and the results were compared to actual treatment admissions, which revealed a lack of convergence. Only 9% of persons were estimated to need intensive residential treatment whereas actual admissions to intensive residential treatment accounted for 29% of all admissions. The disparities may be accounted for by sampling bias of the needs estimate and by the likelihood that persons with more severe problems may be overrepresented when only a small proportion of treatment need is being met. These findings suggest that if resources become available to narrow the treatment gap, a larger proportion of outpatient services and less intensive services may be appropriate for the expanded clientele.