Floods in a changing climate: a review.

This paper begins with an analysis of flooding as a natural disaster for which the solutions to the environmental, social and economic problems are essentially those of identifying and overcoming hazards and vulnerability, reducing risk and damaging consequences. Long-term solutions to flooding problems, especially in a changing climate, should be sought in the wider context of developing more sustainable social organization, economics and technology. Then, developments are described of how scientific understanding, supported by practical modelling, is leading to predictions of how human-induced changes to climatic and geological conditions are likely to influence flooding over at least the next 300 years, through their influences on evaporation, precipitation, run-off, wind storm and sea-level rise. Some of the outstanding scientific questions raised by these problems are highlighted, such as the statistical and deterministic prediction of extreme events, the understanding and modelling of mechanisms that operate on varying length- and time-scales, and the complex interactions between biological, ecological and physical problems. Some options for reducing the impact of flooding by new technology include both improved prediction and monitoring with computer models, and remote sensing, flexible and focused warning systems, and permanent and temporary flood-reduction systems.