The risk and predictive factors for developing liver cancer among patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis.

Patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis (n 1441) and those with post-transfusion hepatitis (n 343), whose medical expenses were subsidized by the Aichi Prefectural Government, were followed up for three years by record linkage with the Aichi Cancer Registry. During the follow-up period, 122 incident cases of liver cancer were identified. Compared with the general population, patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis were at a 64.9 times greater risk (50.5 times in males and 100.4 times in females) and those with post-transfusion hepatitis were at a 9.4 times greater risk (8.9 times in males and 13.7 times in females) of developing liver cancer. Information on prognostic factors for 1,068 patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis was also collected in a questionnaire survey by the physicians in charge. Patients positive to hepatitis B surface antigen (HBs Ag) and those positive to HBe Ag had a significantly increased risk of subsequent liver cancer. The risk of developing liver cancer was positively associated with base-line levels of GPT and AFP and age and, inversely associated with total alcohol intake and female sex. In multivariate analyses, the associations with HBe Ag, AFP, sex and age remained statistically significant, whereas the associations with GPT, total alcohol intake and HBs Ag were of borderline significance.