A model of Taura syndrome virus (TSV) epidemics in Litopenaeus vannamei.

Taura syndrome virus (TSV) is a highly virulent pathogen of Litopenaeus vannamei, has affected shrimp aquaculture throughout the world, and threatens wild populations. Despite its importance, little work has been done on the pathogen's formal epidemiology. Therefore we developed a compartment model for epidemics of TSV in closed populations of L. vannamei. The model includes five compartments, uninfected susceptible, prepatently infected, acutely infected, chronically infected, and dead infected shrimp. The transmission coefficients, patency coefficient, virulence coefficients, and removal coefficient (disappearance of dead infected shrimp) control the dynamics of the model. We estimated the coefficients in laboratory studies and inserted the estimates in the model to characterize TSV epidemics and to estimate the basic reproduction ratio R(0) and threshold density for TSV epidemics in L. vannamei. Further we examined through computer simulation the effect of varying the coefficients on R(0). Decreases in transmission decrease R(0), decreases in virulence increase R(0), increases in patency do not affect R(0), and increases in recovery most likely increase R(0) but under some conditions might decrease it.