The evolution of virulence in a plant virus.

The evolution of virulence is a rapidly growing field of research, but few reports deal with the evolution of virulence in natural populations of parasites. We present here an observational and experimental analysis of the evolution of virulence of the plant virus Cucumber mosaic virus (CMV) during an epidemic on tomato in eastern Spain. Three types of CMV isolates were found that caused in tomato plants either a systemic necrosis (N isolates), stunting and a severe reduction of leaf lamina (Y isolates), or stunting and leaf curl (A isolates). These phenotypes were due to the presence of satellite RNAs (satRNAs) necrogenic (in N isolates) or attenuative (in A isolates) of the symptoms caused by CMV without satRNA (Y isolates). For these three types of isolates, parameters of virulence and transmission were estimated experimentally. For virulence the ranking of isolates was N > Y > A, for transmissibility, Y > A > N. The predictions of theoretical models for the evolution of virulence were analyzed with these parameters and compared with observations from the field. A single-infection model predicted adequately the observed long-term evolution of the CMV population to intermediate levels of virulence. A coinfection model that considered competition between isolates with an effect on transmission explained the invasion of the CMV population by N isolates at the beginning of the epidemic, and its predictions also agreed with field data on the long-term evolution of the CMV population. An important conclusion from both models was that the density of the aphid vector's population is a major factor in the evolution of CMV virulence. This may be relevant for the design of control strategies for CMV-induced diseases.