Predictors of renal and patient outcomes in atheroembolic renal disease: a prospective study.

Atheroembolic renal disease (AERD) is part of a multisystemic disease accompanied by high cardiovascular comorbidity and mortality. Interrelationships between traditional risk factors for atherosclerosis, vascular comorbidities, precipitating factors, and markers of clinical severity of the disease in determining outcome remain poorly understood. Patients with AERD presenting to a single center between 1996 and 2002 were followed-up with prospective collection of clinical and biochemical data. The major outcomes included end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and death. Ninety-five patients were identified (81 male). AERD was iatrogenic in 87%. Mean age was 71.4 yr. Twenty-three patients (24%) developed ESRD; 36 patients (37.9%) died. Cox regression analysis showed that significant independent predictors of ESRD were long-standing hypertension (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.1; P < 0.001) and preexisting chronic renal impairment (HR = 2.12; P = 0.02); use of statins was independently associated with decreased risk of ESRD (HR = 0.02; P = 0.003). Age (HR = 1.09; P = 0.009), diabetes (HR = 2.55; P = 0.034), and ESRD (HR = 2.21; P = 0.029) were independent risk factors for patient mortality; male gender was independently associated with decreased risk of death (HR = 0.27; P = 0.007). Cardiovascular comorbidities, precipitating factors, and clinical severity of AERD had no prognostic impact on renal and patient survival. It is concluded that AERD has a strong clinical impact on patient and renal survival. The study clearly shows the importance of preexisting chronic renal impairment in determining both renal and patient outcome, this latter being mediated by the development of ESRD. The protective effect of statins on the development of ESRD should be evaluated in a prospective study.