Impaired fasting glucose and risk of diabetes in Taiwan: follow-up over 3 years.

The purpose of this paper was to examine the relationship between fasting glucose levels and development of diabetes among residents of Penghu, Taiwan. From July 1995 to June 1996, a population-based cohort study was conducted among residents aged >or=40 years on the island of Penghu, Taiwan. Of the 1601 surveyed, 1306 (81.6%) did not have diabetes. Six hundred of these 1306 persons were re-examined 3 years later. Participants with fasting plasma glucose (FPG) concentration <110 mg/dl (<6.1 mmol/l) were classified as normoglycemic, those with a glucose concentration of 110-126 mg/dl (6.1-7.0 mmol/l) had impaired fasting glucose (IFG), and those with a fasting glucose concentration of >or=126 mg/dl (7.0 mmol/l) were considered to have diabetes. During the 3-year follow-up, 4.3% of the total population (1.4% per year, 95% CI 0.9-1.9%) developed diabetes. Of those with IFG at baseline, 9.6% (3.2% per year, 95% CI 1.8-5.0%) progressed to diabetes, but only 2.5% (0.8% per year, 95% CI 0.4-1.2%) of normoglycemic people did so. The multivariate-adjusted odds ratio of developing diabetes was 4.4 (95% CI 1.9-10.6) for persons with IFG compared with those who were normoglycemic at baseline. Other significant predictors of progression to diabetes were higher waist-hip ratio (WHR), triglyceride and apolipoprotein B (apo B) levels. In this Asian Chinese population, IFG is a strong predictor of diabetes. The high rate of conversion from IFG to diabetes, combined with the previously observed high IFG prevalence, suggests future high prevalence rates of diabetes in Taiwan.