A theoretical approach to assess microbial risks due to failures in drinking water systems.

A failure in treatment or in the distribution network of a surface water-works could have serious consequences due to the variable raw water quality in combination with an extended distribution. The aim of this study was to examine the theoretical impact of incidents in the drinking water system on the annual risk of infection in a population served by a large water treatment plant in Sweden. Reported incidents in the system were examined and a microbial risk assessment that included three pathogens, Cryptosporidium parvum, rotavirus and Campylobacter jejuni, was performed. The main risk incidents in water treatment were associated with sub-optimal particle removal or disinfection malfunction. Incidents in the distribution network included cross-connections and microbial pollution of reservoirs and local networks. The majority of the annual infections were likely to be due to pathogens passing treatment during normal operation and not due to failures, thus adding to the endemic rate. Among the model organisms, rotavirus caused the largest number of infections. Decentralised water treatment with membranes was also considered in which failures upstream fine-pored membranes would have little impact as long as the membranes were kept intact.