Investigation of factors affecting voluntary and involuntary culling in expanding dairy herds in Wisconsin using survival analysis.

Trends in the relative risk of voluntary culling of low-producing cows and involuntary culling of high-producing cows were examined in 186 Wisconsin dairy herds that expanded significantly between 1994 and 1998. A Weibull model for survival analysis was applied to data of 72,456 Holstein cows with first calving from 1981 to 2000; this model included a time-independent effect of age at first calving and time-dependent effects of year-season, age-parity, and within herd-year quintile for combined fat + protein yield (by time period). The relative risk of (involuntary) culling of high-producing cows (versus average cows) increased from 0.5 in 1981 to 1989 to 0.68 in 1996 to 2000. Meanwhile, the relative risk of (voluntary) culling of low-producing cows decreased from 4.20 to 2.55 over the same time period. Variables related to facilities, labor, and management were obtained via survey, and the relative risk of culling for high-and low-producing cows after expansion (1996 to 2000) was calculated for different levels of each variable. Herds with fewer cows per employee and a greater percentage of labor supplied by family members tended to have lower risk of involuntary culling of profitable cows. Likewise, high-producing cows in herds with fans, sprinklers, self-locking manger stalls, palpation rails, and maternity pens had a significantly lower risk of culling than cows in herds without such facilities. Herds that used 100% artificial insemination (AI) had lower risk of involuntary culling than non-AI herds or herds with a cleanup bull, but 3x milking and use of a custom heifer grower led to unfavorable trends in involuntary culling. In summary, this study documented the unfavorable trends in voluntary and involuntary culling in expanding herds and quantified the gains producers can expect in cow survival by investing in improvements in facilities, labor, and management.