Predictors of drinking outcomes among alcoholics.

Predicting outcomes for individual patients entering substance abuse treatment has long been a clinical goal in the addictions field. Intake data from the Addiction Severity Index and other standardized scales were collected on 248 alcohol dependent/abusing patients entering an urban hospital treatment program. The outcome measure was frequency of drinking days in the past 30 days. Baseline data were used to identify predictors of posttreatment drinking frequency at two follow-up interviews (3 and 12 months postbaseline). Stepwise multiple regressions indicated that a set of baseline predictors accounted for similar and substantial proportions of outcome variance at the two follow-ups. When psychosocial predictors were combined with an index of alcohol use severity (which included drinking frequency), the proportions of variance explained were 31% and 28% at 3 and 12 months, respectively. Two psychosocial predictors were significant at both time periods, and thus most likely to be replicated in future research: a treatment motivation index (a combination of measures of commitment to treatment success and internal motivation to seek treatment) and an index of 12-step (self-help) participation (a combination of measures of frequency of 12-step meeting attendance and perceived helpfulness of 12-step participation). While the predictability of short-term (3 month) outcomes could help clinicians tailor treatment strategies to maximize patient motivation and reduce drinking behavior, the predictability of longer term (12 month) outcomes could help counselors plan aftercare programs, encourage self-help participation, and promote recovery-oriented activities to sustain initial treatment-induced gains.