Radionuclide transport simulation and uncertainty analyses with the saturated-zone site-scale model at Yucca Mountain, Nevada.

Evaluation of radionuclide transport in the saturated zone (SZ) to the accessible environment is an important component of performance assessment for the proposed radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain. Simulations of radionuclide migration in the SZ have been performed using the calibrated three-dimensional (3-D) SZ site-scale flow and transport model. An innovative particle-tracking method was used to simulate transport that includes the processes of advection, dispersion, matrix diffusion, and sorption. The uncertainties in groundwater flow and radionuclide transport were quantitatively evaluated to develop uncertainty distributions for key model parameters, and multiple realizations of the SZ system were simulated using the SZ site-scale model. The results of multiple realizations of radionuclide transport indicate significant aggregate uncertainty in transport times through the SZ. The simulated radionuclide mass breakthrough curves in the SZ have been coupled with other components of the repository system in Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) analyses and constitute the means by which uncertainty in the SZ is incorporated into regulatory analyses. Regression analysis has been used to determine the sensitivity of radionuclide transport simulation results to the uncertainty of individual model input parameters. Results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that median radionuclide transport times were dominantly controlled by uncertainty in the specific discharge in the SZ, with sorption and retardation in the alluvium playing important roles for some radionuclides.