SETTING: Mycobacterium bovis bacille Calmette-Gueŕin (BCG) is provided to all infants born in Finland. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the cost-effectiveness of universal versus selective BCG immunization. DESIGN: A Markov model was developed to simulate rates of tuberculosis (TB) and non-tuberculous mycobacterial disease (NTM), and to examine the cost-effectiveness in terms of cost per case averted of three different strategies: universal BCG, selective BCG (10% of infants at higher TB risk than other infants) or no BCG immunization. RESULTS: In a cohort of 60,000 infants over 15 years, the model predicts five cases each of TB and NTM disease with universal immunization, 8-21 TB and 31 NTM cases with various strategies of selective immunization, and 25 TB and 34 NTM cases with no BCG immunization. BCG side-effects are predicted in 5, 0.5 and 0 infants, respectively. The cost per case averted for immunization strategies ranges from a cost of 38,311 US dollars to a savings of 323 dollars as selective immunization becomes more efficient at targeting infants at highest risk of TB. CONCLUSIONS: In a country with a low incidence of pediatric tuberculosis, selective BCG immunization is a more cost-effective strategy than universal BCG immunization for the prevention of tuberculosis, but results in an increase in NTM cases.
SETTING:Mycobacterium bovis bacille Calmette-Gueŕin (BCG) is provided to all infants born in Finland. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the cost-effectiveness of universal versus selective BCG immunization. DESIGN: A Markov model was developed to simulate rates of tuberculosis (TB) and non-tuberculous mycobacterial disease (NTM), and to examine the cost-effectiveness in terms of cost per case averted of three different strategies: universal BCG, selective BCG (10% of infants at higher TB risk than other infants) or no BCG immunization. RESULTS: In a cohort of 60,000 infants over 15 years, the model predicts five cases each of TB and NTM disease with universal immunization, 8-21 TB and 31 NTM cases with various strategies of selective immunization, and 25 TB and 34 NTM cases with no BCG immunization. BCG side-effects are predicted in 5, 0.5 and 0 infants, respectively. The cost per case averted for immunization strategies ranges from a cost of 38,311 US dollars to a savings of 323 dollars as selective immunization becomes more efficient at targeting infants at highest risk of TB. CONCLUSIONS: In a country with a low incidence of pediatric tuberculosis, selective BCG immunization is a more cost-effective strategy than universal BCG immunization for the prevention of tuberculosis, but results in an increase in NTM cases.