Consistently low hepatitis B virus DNA saves patients from hepatocellular carcinogenesis in HBV-related cirrhosis. A nested case-control study using 96 untreated patients.

BACKGROUND: To elucidate the influence of serum hepatitis B virus (HBV) load on hepatocellular carcinogenesis in cirrhotic patients, HBV-DNA was sequentially measured. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Among 160 consecutive patients with HBV-related cirrhosis who received no anti-viral therapy, serial assay of HBV-DNA concentration was available in 146 (91.3%): 48 developed hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and 98 did not during a median of 11.7 years. HBV-DNA of 10(3.7) copies/ml or less was considered as low.
RESULTS: Of the 48 cases with eventual HCC development (group A), 9 showed intermittently high HBV-DNA, and the other 39 persistently high values. Among 48 age- and sex-matched control patients (group B) selected from the 98 HCC-free patients, 9 had continuously low HBV-DNA, 13 showed a settled down course of HBV-DNA, 9 intermittently high, and the remaining 17 patients demonstrated continuously high HBV-DNA. High HBV-DNA in the last 3 years was significantly associated with carcinogenesis (group A; 0/48 vs. group B; 22/48, p < 0.0001). No patient with a continuously low HBV-DNA for the last 3 years developed HCC.
CONCLUSION: Persistence of high HBV-DNA concentration suggested an increased risk of carcinogenesis. Sequential analysis of HBV-DNA is important in the assessment of the carcinogenesis risk. Copyright 2003 S. Karger AG, Basel