Predicting factors for survival of patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer: a management guideline.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: When pancreatic cancer cannot be resected, palliative procedures including gastroenteric bypass and biliary bypass may be selected. However, since predicting survival is difficult, indication of these procedures remains unclear. This study was designed to elucidate the prognostic factors of patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer in order to improve their quality of life.
METHODOLOGY: We treated 187 consecutive patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer at the Kobe University Hospital. Fifteen prognostic variables for survival were analyzed (sex, age, the degree of pain, diet, presence of jaundice, main site of the tumor, tumor size, major vessel invasion, liver metastasis, peritoneal dissemination, distal metastasis and operative procedures) in surgically treated patients (n = 125). All patients were followed until death. Cox's proportional hazard model and logistic regression models were used to determine the factors influencing the survival of patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer.
RESULTS: Cox's proportional hazard model revealed that duodenal invasion (p = 0.001) and liver metastasis (p < 0.0001) significantly influenced the survival of the patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, liver metastasis (p = 0.009) and peritoneal dissemination (p = 0.004) were significant factors on the six-month survival after palliative operation.
CONCLUSIONS: Liver metastasis and peritoneal dissemination were negative predictive factors for the six-month survival of patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer. Palliative bypass surgery is recommended for patients expected to survive long-term (more than six-months).