Estimation of tuberculosis incidence and mortality in Egypt using epidemiological models.

To estimate tuberculosis incidence in Egypt, data were collected from national tuberculosis case notification records, vital registration statistics, tuberculin surveys and treatment outcomes. An important source of information was the national comprehensive tuberculin survey results, which estimated a 55.2% case detection rate and a 65.6% case notification rate. The data suggest that only two-thirds of actual cases are being identified and treated by the national programme. The figures for expected versus reported deaths from tuberculosis in Egypt in 1996 suggest underreporting to be almost 80%.