Effect of global climate change and human disturbances on tree diversity of the forest regenerating from clear-cuts of mixed broadleaved Korean pine forest in Northeast China.

Studies on the combined effects of global climate change and human disturbances are important for biodiversity conservation and natural resources management. Here we use the modified forest dynamics model to simulate the tree diversity change of a typical mixed broadleaved Korean pine forest regenerating from clear-cuts in Northeast China in response to global climate change, double concentration of CO(2) and human disturbances during the next 50 years. We consider the following climate change scenario: the annual temperature will increase 2 degrees C, the annual precipitation will increase 10% and CO(2) concentration will increase to 700 microll(-1) linearly in 50 years. Five kinds of human disturbances under climate change are considered: logging which removes all trees with diameter at the breast height of more than 50 cm; removing all individuals of any one species; and removing all individuals of shade tolerant, shade intolerant and medium type tree species, respectively. We find that the index of proportional representation of species (alpha index) for the forest growing from clear-cuts increases significantly under climate change, but decreases under climate change plus logging. The index of changing representation of species (beta(c) index) increases significantly under climate change and climate change plus logging. When any one species is removed alpha diversity of the forest growing from clear-cuts changes significantly under climate change, but beta(c) index remains almost the same. When all individuals of shade tolerant species, shade intolerant species, or medium type species are removed, respectively, alpha diversity decreases, but beta(c) diversity changes in more complicated ways. The implications of these results for preserving tree diversity in this type of forest are also discussed.