A possible approach for the assessment of radiation effects on populations of wild organisms in radionuclide-contaminated environments?

It is frequently asserted that measures to protect the biotic environment from increased radiation exposures arising from human activities should be focussed on the population rather than the individual. It is, however, difficult (if not impossible) to identify any population-specific attributes that can be affected by radiation exposure directly rather than through the mediation of direct, known and identifiable effects in individual organisms. Indeed, it is often conceded that this difficulty forces attention to be refocussed onto the effects in individuals. Regulatory controls on radioactive waste management and disposal could then be implemented to ensure that any radiation effects in individual native plants and animals remain at, or below, some acceptable level (yet to be defined). Nevertheless, the question remains as to whether such controls would also provide for the protection of the population. An answer to this question depends on the availability of a model that allows the integration of the known effects of radiation exposure on the mortality, morbidity, fertility and fecundity of individuals into an assessment of the possible impact at the population level. The utility of one such approach, the Leslie Matrix Model, is explored in respect of a fish population (the plaice, Pleuronectes platessa). This initial implementation of the population model is simplistic (and, certainly, environmentally unrealistic), but it is concluded that the output from the model does provide some insights into how the population might respond to radiation-induced changes in individual attributes, and that further development in the direction of increased realism is fully warranted. Crown Copyright 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.