Kinetic potential and barrier crossing: a model for warm cloud drizzle formation.

The kinetic potential of nucleation theory is used to describe droplet growth processes in a cloud. Drizzle formation is identified as a statistical barrier-crossing phenomenon that transforms cloud droplets to drizzle size with a rate dependent on turbulent diffusion, droplet collection, and size distribution. Steady-state and transient drizzle rates are calculated for typical cloud conditions. We find drizzle more likely under transient conditions. The model quantifies an important indirect effect of aerosols on climate-drizzle suppression in clouds of higher droplet concentration.