A simulation model for evaluating the medical and economic outcomes of screening strategies for colorectal cancer.

Mathematical models have been shown to be useful in predicting the cost-effectiveness of cancer screening programmes. We designed a computer macro-simulation model aimed at predicting the cost-effectiveness of alternative colorectal cancer screening strategies. This model was built to determine the cost-effectiveness of a biennial screening programme using the Hemoccult test in Burgundy (France). It was validated with data from the Danish randomized study. Estimates of our model showed an extremely close concordance with observed results in the Danish study. The observed mortality reduction was 18.0% and the estimated mortality reduction was 18.4%. Preliminary data from the Burgundy study predict a 14.6% colorectal cancer mortality reduction after 10 years. Sensitivity analyses were performed with different assumptions regarding the participation rates and the lead-time. This model can serve to assess the cost-effectiveness of a variety of screening modalities.