Waiting time information services: how well do different statistics forecast a patient's wait?

This study investigates how accurately the waiting times of patients about to join a waiting list are predicted by the types of statistics disseminated via web-based waiting time information services. Data were collected at a public hospital in Sydney, Australia, on elective surgery activity and waiting list behaviour from July 1995 to June 1998. The data covered 46 surgeons in 10 surgical specialties. The accuracy of the tested statistics varied greatly, being affected more by the characteristics and behaviour of a surgeon's waiting list than by how the statistics were derived. For those surgeons whose waiting times were often over six months, commonly used statistics can be very poor at forecasting patient waiting times.