Costs and benefits of polio eradication: a long-run global perspective.

Pre-vaccination polio incidence rates in USA and Italy were used to predict the cases that would have occurred in the world for the years 1970-2050 in the absence of immunization. Globally, polio program will cost about US dollars 67 billion if vaccination is discontinued after 2010. The medical care cost savings achieved will be more than US dollars 128 billions, implying that polio eradication activities actually pay for itself in the longer run. In addition to the cost savings, the program will prevent 855000 deaths, 4 million paralysis cases and 40 million disability adjusted life years (DALYs) over the years 1970-2050.