An updated view of the national anesthesia personnel shortfall.

UNLABELLED: Reports of anesthesia personnel shortages in 2001 led to the first comprehensive analysis of labor supply and demand for anesthesiologists since 1993. We now update this analysis and forecast, incorporating newly available data about residency composition, American Board of Anesthesiology and Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetist certification, the 2002 residency match, surgical facilities, and the US physician workforce. In addition, US residency programs were surveyed; national health care utilization and economic data were reviewed. Adjusted for the new information, our model still shows an anesthesiologist shortfall in 2002, projected to continue through 2005. We now estimate a current shortage of 1100-3800 anesthesiologists in 2002, on the basis of past service demand growth assumptions of 2%-3%, respectively. By 2005 this number is expected to be 500-3900, depending on a future service demand growth of 1.5%-2%, respectively. To avoid a surplus of anesthesiologists in 2006-2010, our model suggests that the number of graduates should level out at 1600 yearly, with a 1.5% service demand growth. To forecast the anesthesia personnel market more accurately, thereby helping supply match demand, substantially better quantification of future demand for anesthesia services is needed. If sustained growth in service demand >1.5% is likely, entry into the specialty should be encouraged beyond the current level. IMPLICATIONS: With updates from training programs, surgical activity, and other sources, our previously described model estimates a continuing shortfall of 1000-3800 anesthesiologists in 2002 and 500-3900 in 2005, assuming that service demand growth is 1.5% or 2% annually. If service growth >1.5% is likely, entry into the specialty should be encouraged beyond current levels.