Predicting the outcome of renal replacement therapy in severe acute renal failure.

Continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT), such as continuous venovenous hemofiltration, has theoretical advantages over intermittent hemodialysis (IHD) that are related to cardiorespiratory stability, metabolic control, and fluid balance allowing nutritional supplementation. However, retrospective and controlled studies fail to show these advantages because of comorbidity associated with triage to CRRT. To compare outcomes using IHD versus CRRT, we applied published risk stratification models (Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Lohr index, and APACHE II) to the 349 patients with acute renal failure requiring renal replacement therapy at University of Michigan over the 2 year period including 1995 and 1996. The Cleveland Clinic Foundation model best predicted overall mortality, but our CRRT patients had excess, unpredicted mortality that was particularly prominent in the lower risk categories. The Lohr clinical score predicted mortality less accurately but also was associated with higher, unpredicted mortality at lower risk scores among the CRRT patients. APACHE II scores did not predict mortality very well among IHD, CRRT, or the combined group of patients. We conclude that the need for CRRT itself predicts mortality over and above that included in published risk models. Either CRRT is associated with some unidentified morbidity (e.g., treatment associated infection) or, more likely, triage to CRRT is associated with as yet unspecified comorbidity not detected in existing risk stratification schemes. It will be important to address these issues in any future studies evaluating outcome or comparing renal replacement therapy modalities among patients with severe acute renal failure.