Assessing the efficacy of a ram-genotyping programme to reduce susceptibility to scrapie in Great Britain.

Susceptibility to clinical scrapie is associated with polymorphisms in the PrP gene. The 'ARR' allele of this gene reduces susceptibility to clinical disease caused by all known strains of the transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) agent. The British government proposes to use a ram-genotyping scheme to breed genetic resistance to clinical scrapie into the national sheep population. We considered how best to target limited genotyping resources to achieve the maximum rate of genotype evolution. We created a metapopulation model of the British sheep industry, which includes the major pure-breeds of sheep and the cross-breeds produced by crossing these pure-bred animals. The main criterion for assessing the efficacy of different strategies was the time taken to increase the prevalence of the ARR allele in the slaughter-lamb population. Our model predicted that the most-effective strategy would be to target genotyping to those rams used for pure-breeding (i.e. mated with the same breed of ewe). This strategy was compared to two further strategies, in which the proportion of rams genotyped in each breed depended on the prevalence of the ARR/ARR genotype in that breed. A policy in which the proportion of animals genotyped is reduced as the ARR prevalence in that breed increases is efficient. The most-effective policy was targeting the hill sector in the early years and gradually switching to genotyping more terminal-sire and longwool rams as the resistance of the hill sector increases. Crown Copyright 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.