Modeling the development of resistance by stalk-boring lepidopteran insects (Crambidae) in areas with transgenic corn and frequent insecticide use.

We simulated the population dynamics and population genetics of two bivoltine species of corn borers, the European corn borer, Ostrinia nubilalis (Hübner), and the southwestern corn borer, Diatraea grandiosella Dyar, in a hypothetical region of irrigated transgenic and nontransgenic corn where insecticide was applied only to the nontransgenic refuge crop. Over the 100-yr time horizon, resistance developed quickly in both species and to both transgenic corn and the insecticide when the allele for resistance to the respective toxin was dominant. When the allele for transgenic resistance was not dominant and the refuge location was constant over the time horizon, spraying the refuge to control southwestern corn borer had no effect on how quickly resistance to the transgenic corn developed. In contrast, the European corn borer developed resistance to transgenic corn much sooner when the refuge was sprayed once per year, and the time to 3% resistance allele frequency decreased as efficacy of the insecticide increased. Only when the refuge was treated less than once every 5 yr (10 generations) did the frequency of application decline enough to permit resistance management for the European corn borer to approximate the effectiveness of an unsprayed refuge. A consistently sprayed refuge <40% of the corn acreage was an inadequate resistance management strategy for the European corn borer even when a low efficacy insecticide (70% mortality) was used. When assumptions about European corn borer adult behavior were changed and the adults behaved similarly to adult southwestern corn borer, the development of resistance to the transgenic crop was slowed significantly.