Detection and monitoring of ongoing aseismic slip in the Tokai region, central Japan.

Analysis of global positioning system data shows that the rate of crustal deformations in the Tokai region of Japan, a seismic gap area, changed over the past 18 months. Kalman filtering analysis shows aseismic slip on the plate boundary in the western Tokai region centered on Lake Hamana, adjacent to the anticipated Tokai earthquake source area. The cumulative moment magnitude reaches 6.7 in June 2002 with a relative slip increase northeast of Lake Haman from January 2002. An existence of aseismic slip in the western Tokai supports the hypothesis of a silent event as the cause of uplifting several days before the 1944 Tonankai earthquake.