Predicting childlessness for recent cohorts of American women.

Over 50% of the American women now in the midst of the childbearing years have never borne a child. These levels of childlessness for women in their 20s are the highest ones in a time series that spans most of the twentieth century. Will postponed parenthood be translated into very high levels of permanent childlessness? Or will these cohorts "catch-up" with a late fertility flurry in their 30s and 40s? The authors examine 3 projection strategies: one using women's stated fertility expectations, a second relying on the patterns of previous cohorts, and a third which posits that current rates will persist into the future. The predictive validity of these different projection strategies are tested with data for the 1980-87 period. They show that the projection based on current period rates performs well. Further, the authors argue that it better captures the first birth process than other models. They forecast levels of 20% childless for cohorts of white women born in the early 1960s. Recent trends for nonwhites are very different from those for whites: levels of 4% are forecast for nonwhite women.