Estimating the effects of successful malarial control programmes on mortality.

"This paper proposes a new, empirically based model to measure the expected effects of successful malaria control programmes on human mortality levels and structure.... The model produces a range of estimated death rates. The range depends on uncertainty about the effective success of control measures. A numerical example, based on the data of the Garki project in northern Nigeria, is discussed. Some alternatives to the model are mentioned. Some strengths and weaknesses...are described and evaluated. And some recommendations are offered for the collection and analysis of data in the intersection of malarial epidemiology and demography." excerpt