New estimates of child mortality in the United States at the turn of the century.

"This article estimates levels of childhood mortality on the basis of new data derived from a nationally representative sample of manuscripts of the 1900 U.S. census. The data are responses to census questions on numbers of children ever born and numbers surviving. The results for a subsample corresponding to the small death registration area (DRA) in 1900/02 validate the procedures used." The findings suggest that the 1900-1902 DRA life tables seriously overestimate child mortality among blacks. "Evidence also indicates that child mortality was declining at a moderate pace in the late 19th century, but that little decline was occurring among blacks. The results suggest the need for revising accounts of American black demographic history, including birth rates. They also imply that 20th-century progress in narrowing black-white mortality differentials has been smaller than is commonly believed." excerpt