| Literature DB >> 12339344 |
Abstract
"The accuracy of total live birth forecasts issued by the U.S. Bureau of the Census was analysed. Forecast accuracy has not improved significantly since 1950. Further, the forecasts are not more accurate than several naive alternatives. Moving from a period methodology to a cohort methodology improved forecast accuracy for certain forecasts. [It is demonstrated that] the Bureau of the Census systematically underestimated total births in the upswing and overestimated in the downswing." excerptKeywords: Americas; Critique; Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Developing Countries; Estimation Technics; Evaluation; Evaluation Report; Fertility; Measurement; North America; Northern America; Population; Population Dynamics; Population Forecast; Population Projection; Reliability; Research Methodology; United States
Mesh：
Year: 1982 PMID： 12339344 DOI： 10.1002/for.3980010404
Source DB: PubMed Journal: J Forecast ISSN： 0277-6693