Estimation of megacity growth: simple rules versus complex phenomena.

"The growth of large urban aggregates (megacities) is analogous to the development of self-organized structures known in physics. Using empirical data about changes in the built-up areas of different cities as input, the self-organizing model employed here suggests that megacities evolve towards a hierarchical form of spatial organization, and provides estimates of the size of subclusters that compose the urban aggregate.... The model has been validated by reproducing the evolution of the Berlin area over a period of 35 years (1910-45). Using the same assumptions, the evolution of the built-up area of Daegu (Korea) is simulated up to the year 2010." excerpt