Life expectancy at age 60--epidemiologic scenarios assuming delayed mortality for selected causes of death.

"The present analysis offers a projection of life expectancy at advanced ages in Austria for the year 2010. To estimate the gains in life expectancy the Simultaneous Multiple Cause-Delay (SIMCAD) method is used. This model takes into account the epidemiological concept of an additional delay in the onset of particular chronic-degenerative diseases. While the results of the SIMCAD method vary only slightly on the whole from the official projection of life expectancy at age 60, the similarity between the two projections decreases steadily with increasing age. The SIMCAD model predicts higher gains in life expectancy for the oldest age-groups of the population than do the official statistics." (SUMMARY IN FRE) excerpt