| Literature DB >> 12290900 |
Abstract
This paper simulates the macroeconomic effects of the AIDS epidemic in Malawi. This is done by using Bulatao's (1990) predictions of the disease's demographic impact in a dual-economy macro model. The with-AIDS scenario is compared with a counterfactual no-AIDS scenario to assess the impact of the disease if it spreads unchecked. The results suggest that by the year 2010, Malawian real GDP could be as much as 10% smaller than it would have been in the absence of the AIDS epidemic. The impact on per capita income is smaller, ranging from 0% to 3% lower than it would have been in the no-AIDS case by 2010.Entities:
Keywords: Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome; Africa; Africa South Of The Sahara; Demographic Factors; Demographic Impact; Developing Countries; Diseases; Eastern Africa; Economic Factors; English Speaking Africa; Epidemics; Gross National Product--changes; Hiv Infections; Macroeconomic Factors; Malawi; Models, Theoretical; Population; Population Dynamics; Production; Research Methodology; Theoretical Studies; Viral Diseases
Mesh：
Year: 1995 PMID： 12290900 DOI： 10.1093/oxfordjournals.jae.a036821
Source DB: PubMed Journal: J Afr Econ ISSN： 0963-8024