Ageing and social-security costs.

"In this paper we take the view that the strong emphasis given in recent years to the demographic component in pension and health outlays [in OECD countries] is justified but at the same time exaggerated. The paper first shows that the demographic impact on past growth in expenditures...was small and that it was everywhere far outstripped by other factors. Moreover, linking projections of demographic trends up to 2050 with three scenarios for growth rates in real benefits and real earnings, shows that the effects of future ageing can be substantially eased (or exacerbated) by other factors that are, in principle, accessible to policy control. Consideration of several possible strategies suggests that a combination of several is necessary to ease the burden." (SUMMARY IN FRE) excerpt