Marriage, divorce, and living arrangements: prospective changes.

An analysis of current marriage patterns in the United States is presented based on official data. "The population base for first marriages reached a peak in 1982, and the corresponding peak for divorces will be reached in about 1990. Both first marriage and remarriage rates have been declining among those in critical age groups and may be expected to continue to do so, barring unforeseen developments. About one-half of the first marriages of young adults today are likely to end in divorce. For second marriages, the projected level is closer to 60%. The divorce rate is highest for those with an incomplete college education and is especially low for those with four years of college." It is noted that "about three-fourths of young divorced persons are likely eventually to remarry. The number of unmarried couples tripled during the 1970s and may double again during the 1980s. One-parent households are expected to continue increasing rapidly while two-parent households actually decrease. But even if the recent trends continue at a moderated rate, the vast majority of Americans in 1990 will probably still be living in homes of married couples with or without children or in homes of lone parents and their young children." excerpt