The new Kuznets cycle: a test of the Easterlin-Wachter-Wachter hypothesis.

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the Easterlin-Wachter-Wachter model of the effect of the size of one generation on the size of the succeeding generation. An attempt is made "to identify and test empirically each component of the Easterlin-Wachter-Wachter model..., to show how the components collapse to give a closed demographic model of generation size, and to investigate the impacts of relative cohort size on the economic performance of a cohort." The models derived are then used to generate forecasts of the U.S. birth rate to the year 2050. The results provide support for the major components of the original model. excerpt