Case studies in international tobacco surveillance: cigarette smuggling in Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: This article is the first in a series of international case studies developed by the American Cancer Society to illustrate use of publicly available surveillance data for regional tobacco control.
DESIGN: A descriptive analysis of Brazil and Paraguay cigarette production and trade data from official sources.
METHODS: Per capita cigarette consumption for Brazil and its neighbour was calculated from 1970 to 1998 using data on production, imports, and exports from NATIONS, the National Tobacco Information Online System.
RESULTS: A 63% decrease was observed in the estimate of per capita consumption of cigarettes in Brazil between 1986 and 1998 (from 1913 cigarettes per person in 1986 to 714 cigarettes per person in 1998) and a 16-fold increase in Paraguay was observed during the same period (from 678 cigarettes per person in 1986 to 10 929 cigarettes per person in 1998). Following Brazil's 1999 passage of a 150% cigarette export tax, cigarette exports fell 89% and Brazil's estimated per capita consumption rose to 1990 levels (based on preliminary data). Per capita consumption in Paraguay also fell to 1990 levels.
CONCLUSIONS: These trends coincide with local evidence that large volumes of cigarettes manufactured in Brazil for export to Paraguay are smuggled back and consumed as tax-free contraband in Brazil. It is hoped that this case study will draw wider public attention to the problems that smuggling presents for tobacco control, help identify other countries confronting similar issues, and stimulate effective interventions.