Menarcheal age and subsequent patterns of family formation.

We examine whether age at menarche affects age at first marriage or first birth using two samples of U.S. women. Data are drawn from the Tremin Trust, a longitudinal study of menstrual cycles that recruited white women who were students at the University of Minnesota and from a survey of a nationally representative sample of white women born between 1900 and 1910. Regression models with cubic splines were used to analyze the relationship between age at menarche and age at first marriage. Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the effect of age at menarche on the interval between marriage and first birth. Unlike earlier work, we found that once secular trends in both age at marriage and age at menarche were taken into account, there was no evidence that age at menarche affects either age at marriage or the timing of first births in these U.S. women.