A finite mixture model of growth trajectories of adolescent alcohol use: predictors and consequences.

The current study sought to identify classes of growth trajectories of adolescent alcohol use and to examine the predictors and outcomes associated with the classes. Alcohol use was assessed from Grades 7 to 12 in a school-based sample. Latent growth mixture modeling was used, and results indicated 5 discrete longitudinal drinking patterns. The 2 most common drinking patterns included occasional very light drinking from Grades 7 to 12 and moderate escalation in both quantity and frequency of alcohol use. One group drank infrequently but at high levels throughout the study period. Another group exhibited rapid escalation in both quantity and frequency. The final group started at high levels of frequency and quantity in Grade 7 and showed rapid de-escalation in frequency. Emotional distress and risk taking distinguished the classes, and all classes, particularly rapid escalators, showed elevated levels of alcohol-related problems relative to occasional very light drinkers.