Demographic determinants for change in activities of daily living: a cohort study of the elderly people in Beijing.

To describe changes in activities of daily living (ADL) of community-dwelling Beijing elderly people, observed for 8 years, and to identify the demographic characteristics that predict the functional change. Four sets of interview data from 1992 to 2000 were used to evaluate changes among Beijing elderly aged 55 years and over. Results revealed that prevalence of disability increased from 3.9% to 7.1% during the 8 years of follow-up with the average increasing rate of disability was 0.41% per year. Meanwhile an increasing likelihood of recovery from disability is observed with age and time. Women, aged 75 or more, experienced higher disability than men though it was in the opposite for younger ages. In addition, certain demographic subgroups (such as women, unmarried, illiterate and living in non urban area) appeared to be at higher risk for ADL impaired. The patterns of ADL change is in both the direction of improvement and declination. Demographic variables emerged as a significant predictor in estimating functional outcomes. Furthermore, it is recommended that the demarcation factor for the evaluation of ADL should be 75 years of age.