Predictors of subsequent coronary events, stroke, and death among survivors of first hospitalized myocardial infarction.

We identified predictors of prognosis among n = 2,677 health maintenance organization enrollees 30 to 79 years old who survived a first hospitalized myocardial infarction (MI) during 1986-1996 (mean follow-up 3.4 years). Independent risk factors for reinfarction/fatal coronary heart disease (CHD) (incidence = 49.0/1,000 person-years, 445 events) were age, diabetes, chronic congestive heart failure (CHF), angina, high body mass index (BMI), low diastolic blood pressure (DBP), high serum creatinine, and low/high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol. Independent risk factors for stroke (incidence = 13.0/1,000 person-years, 124 events) were age, diabetes, CHF, high DBP, and high creatinine. Independent predictors of death (incidence = 44.2/1,000 person-years, 431 events) were age, diabetes, CHF, continued smoking after MI, low DBP, high pulse rate, high creatinine, and low HDL cholesterol, while BMI had a significant U-shaped association with death (elevated risk at low and high BMI). The occurrence of study end points did not differ significantly between men and women after adjustment for other risk factors and use of preventive medical therapies, although men tended to have higher rates of reinfarction/CHD than women among older subjects. In summary, we demonstrated that the major cardiovascular risk factors age, diabetes, CHF, smoking, and dyslipidemia are important prognostic factors in the years after nonfatal MI. Elevated BMI was associated with increased risk of reinfarction/CHD and death and elevated DBP with increased risk of stroke, but we also observed high mortality among those with low BMI and high risk of recurrent coronary disease and death among those with low DBP. Finally, high creatinine was a strong, independent predictor of a variety of adverse outcomes after first MI.