Comparison of pesticide root zone model 3.12: runoff predictions with field data.

As part of a process to improve confidence in the results of regulatory modeling, predictions of pesticide root zone model (PRZM) 3.12 were compared with measured data collected in nine different runoff field studies. This comparison shows that PRZM 3.12 provides a reasonable estimate of chemical runoff at the edge of a field. Simulations based on the best choices for input parameters (no conservatism built into input parameters) are generally within an order of magnitude of measured data, with better agreement observed both for larger events and for cumulative values over the study period. When the model input parameters are calibrated to improve the hydrology, the fit between predicted and observed data improves (results are usually within a factor of three). When conservatism is deliberately introduced into the input pesticide parameters, substantial overprediction of runoff losses occur. Recommendations for future work to improve regulatory models include implementation of more sophisticated evapotranspiration routines, allowing for seasonal variation of various model parameters (such as curve numbers, crop cover, and Manning's surface roughness coefficients), better procedures for estimating site-specific degradation rates in surface and subsoils, and improved sorption routines.