AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: To predict the incidence and prevalence of Type 2 diabetes in the UK, the trends in the levels of diabetes-related complications, and the associated health care costs for the period 2000-60. METHODS: An established epidemiological and economic model of the long-term complications and health care costs of Type 2 diabetes was applied to UK population projections from 2000 to 2060. The model was used to calculate the incidence and prevalence of Type 2 diabetes, the caseloads and population burden for diabetes-related complications, and annual NHS health care costs for Type 2 diabetes over this time period. RESULTS: The total UK population will not increase by more than 3% at any time in the next 60 years. However, the population over 30 will increase by a maximum of 11% by 2030. Due to population ageing, in 2036 there will be approximately 20% more cases of Type 2 diabetes than in 2000. Cases of diabetes-related complications will increase rapidly to peak 20-30% above present levels between 2035 and 2045, before showing a modest decline. The cost of health care for patients with Type 2 diabetes rises by up to 25% during this period, but because of reductions in the economically active age groups, the relative economic burden of the disease can be expected to increase by 40-50%. CONCLUSION/ INTERPRETATION: In the next 30 years Type 2 diabetes will present a serious clinical and financial challenge to the UK NHS.
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: To predict the incidence and prevalence of Type 2 diabetes in the UK, the trends in the levels of diabetes-related complications, and the associated health care costs for the period 2000-60. METHODS: An established epidemiological and economic model of the long-term complications and health care costs of Type 2 diabetes was applied to UK population projections from 2000 to 2060. The model was used to calculate the incidence and prevalence of Type 2 diabetes, the caseloads and population burden for diabetes-related complications, and annual NHS health care costs for Type 2 diabetes over this time period. RESULTS: The total UK population will not increase by more than 3% at any time in the next 60 years. However, the population over 30 will increase by a maximum of 11% by 2030. Due to population ageing, in 2036 there will be approximately 20% more cases of Type 2 diabetes than in 2000. Cases of diabetes-related complications will increase rapidly to peak 20-30% above present levels between 2035 and 2045, before showing a modest decline. The cost of health care for patients with Type 2 diabetes rises by up to 25% during this period, but because of reductions in the economically active age groups, the relative economic burden of the disease can be expected to increase by 40-50%. CONCLUSION/ INTERPRETATION: In the next 30 years Type 2 diabetes will present a serious clinical and financial challenge to the UK NHS.
Authors: C Ron Cantrell; Julie L Priest; Christopher L Cook; Jack Fincham; Steven P Burch Journal: Popul Health Manag Date: 2010-12-13 Impact factor: 2.459
Authors: Christian Deutsch; Vera Portik-Dobos; Anita D Smith; Adviye Ergul; Anne M Dorrance Journal: Microvasc Res Date: 2009-04-15 Impact factor: 3.514
Authors: Steve E Humphries; David Gable; Jackie A Cooper; Helen Ireland; Jeffrey W Stephens; Steven J Hurel; Ka Wah Li; Jutta Palmen; Michelle A Miller; Francesco P Cappuccio; Robert Elkeles; Ian Godsland; George J Miller; Philippa J Talmud Journal: J Mol Med (Berl) Date: 2006-12 Impact factor: 4.599