The confirmation rate of primary hits: a predictive model.

HTS data from primary screening are usually analyzed by setting a cutoff for activity, in order to minimize both false-negative and false-positive rates. An alternative approach, based on a calculated probability of being active, is presented here. Given the predicted confirmation rate derived from this probability, the number of primary positives selected for follow-up can be optimized to maximize the number of true positives without picking too many false positives. Typical cutoff-determining methods are more serendipitous in their nature and not easily optimized in an effort to optimize screening efforts. An additional advantage of calculating a probability of being active for each compound screened is that orthogonal mixtures can be deconvoluted without presetting a deconvolution threshold. An important consequence of using the probability of being active with orthogonal mixtures is that individual compound screening results can be recorded irrespective of whether the assays were performed on single compounds or on cocktails.