Incidence of four adverse outcomes in the elderly population: implications for home care policy and research.

The cost-effective allocation of home care resources requires knowledge of the incidence of institutionalization, hospitalization, functional impairment, and mortality. We therefore assembled a database containing 176 rates abstracted from 71 longitudinal studies published between 1985 and 1998 that examine one or more of these outcomes in the 65 and over population in the United States. Where possible we calculate median values for the estimated annual rate of each outcome for different types of studies-nationally representative, sub-national probability, and convenience sample-and specific subgroups-community residents, hospital admissions and discharges, and nursing home admissions and discharges. We find comparatively low rates of institutionalization and mortality, relatively high rates of hospitalization and functional impairment, similar rates for national and sub-national probability samples, and rates from convenience samples, which greatly exceed probability-based rates. While the rates for institutionalization, hospitalization and mortality are quite stable, the rates for functional impairment display considerably more variability. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings for researchers and policymakers.