The changing pattern of bronchial carcinoma.

1. The age incidence of bronchial carcinoma in England and Wales is rising. 2. In one series the proportion of the patients operated on over the age of 65 years rose from 12% in 1950-5 to 37% in 1970-4. 3. Thes change reflects the national figures in both men and women. 4. The proportion of the population in the ages at risk has risen substantially, particularly amongst men, in the last 20 years, but this does not nearly account for the rise in the incidence in the older age groups. 5. The rate continues to rise in the patients over 65 years of age, but is now falling in all groups of men below that age. It is still rising in all age groups of women. 6. As time has passed the rate has begun to fall in men of older age groups. 7. The sex ratio continues to fall. 8. The process described has been going on for at least 50 years, and it is suggested that the decline in the younger age groups represents the natural history of bronchial carcinoma in the community. 9. The timing of the change in mortality is different in different parts of the world and in the two sexes. 10. It is predicted that the number of men with broncial carcinoma fit for surgery may shortly start to fall in this country.