Prediction of pesticide concentrations found in rivers in the UK.

SWATCATCH is a distributed model combined with databases within a GIS as the POPPIE system to predict pesticide concentrations in rivers at the catchment outlet. The model was evaluated against a dataset of pesticide concentrations in rivers of England and Wales. More than 2000 individual analyses in each of the years 1995 and 1997 covered approximately 150 catchment-pesticide combinations drawn from 29 catchments and 16 pesticides, themselves selected to represent a range of characteristics and properties. SWATCATCH was better able to simulate maximum pesticide concentrations at any time during the year than the proportion of samples containing residues of a particular pesticide above the limit of quantification. The model simulated maximum pesticide concentrations in surface waters which were within a factor of 10 of those observed for 66-74% of catchment-pesticide-year combinations. Simulated and observed frequency of detection could not be differentiated using a Chi 2 test for 54-67% of simulations. Time series analysis for seven of the 29 catchment-pesticide combinations indicated that measured and detected series of concentrations generally followed similar patterns. The evaluation supports the intended use of the model in assisting the construction of pesticide monitoring programmes.