A novel area of predictive modelling: describing the functionality of beneficial microorganisms in foods.

Predictive microbiology generally focuses on the potential outgrowth of spoilage bacteria and foodborne pathogens in foods. Little attention has been paid to the biokinetics of beneficial foodgrade microorganisms, such as lactic acid bacteria. The latter is commonly used in the food fermentation industry, mainly for the in situ production of the antimicrobial lactic acid to extend the shelf life of the food. Furthermore, many strains show additional industrial potential as novel starter cultures since they produce functional metabolites, such as bacteriocins and exopolysaccharides. The production of these functional metabolites has been demonstrated during in vitro experiments, but in many cases these novel starter cultures seem to be less efficient when applied in a food system. A modelling approach may contribute to a better understanding of the tight relation between the food environment and bacterial functionality. Primary modelling can be applied to fit the experimental data concerning cell growth, sugar metabolism, and the production of functional metabolites for a given set of environmental conditions. This led to conclusions concerning the growth-associated production of bacteriocin and exopolysaccharides, the inactivation of these molecules when cell growth levels off, and a minimum cell concentration to trigger on bacteriocin production. Examples deal with the production of the bacteriocin sakacin K by the natural fermented sausage isolate Lactobacillus sakei CTC 494, and the production of heteropolysaccharides by the yoghurt starter culture Streptococcus thermophilus LY03. Secondary modelling of biokinetic parameters quantifies the production of bacteriocin and exopolysaccharides in function of environmental factors. As an example, the specific bacteriocin production by Lb. sakei CTC 494 decreases with increasing sodium chloride concentrations. Furthermore, since the assessment of functionality is frequently hampered by the nature of the food system, mathematical modelling techniques may help to predict the functional behaviour of novel lactic acid bacteria starter cultures in a food matrix, and hence quantify in situ production. For example, a model may simulate cell growth and exopolysaccharide production of S. thermophilus LY03 in a milk environment, where direct measurements are difficult to perform.