BACKGROUND: The proportion of cases of genital ulcer disease attributable to herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) appears to be increasing in sub-Saharan Africa. GOAL: To assess the contributions of HIV disease and behavioral response to the HIV epidemic to the increasing proportion of genital ulcer disease (GUD) attributable to HSV-2 in sub-Saharan Africa. STUDY DESIGN: Simulations of the transmission dynamics of ulcerative sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and HIV with use of the model STDSIM. RESULTS: In simulations, 28% of GUD was caused by HSV-2 before a severe HIV epidemic. If HIV disease was assumed to double the duration and frequency of HSV-2 recurrences, this proportion rose to 35% by year 2000. If stronger effects of HIV were assumed, this proportion rose further, but because of increased HSV-2 transmission this would shift the peak in HSV-2 seroprevalence to an unrealistically young age. A simulated 25% reduction in partner-change rates increased the proportion of GUD caused by HSV-2 to 56%, following relatively large decreases in chancroid and syphilis. CONCLUSION: Behavioral change may make an important contribution to relative increases in genital herpes.
BACKGROUND: The proportion of cases of genital ulcer disease attributable to herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) appears to be increasing in sub-Saharan Africa. GOAL: To assess the contributions of HIV disease and behavioral response to the HIV epidemic to the increasing proportion of genital ulcer disease (GUD) attributable to HSV-2 in sub-Saharan Africa. STUDY DESIGN: Simulations of the transmission dynamics of ulcerative sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and HIV with use of the model STDSIM. RESULTS: In simulations, 28% of GUD was caused by HSV-2 before a severe HIV epidemic. If HIV disease was assumed to double the duration and frequency of HSV-2 recurrences, this proportion rose to 35% by year 2000. If stronger effects of HIV were assumed, this proportion rose further, but because of increased HSV-2 transmission this would shift the peak in HSV-2 seroprevalence to an unrealistically young age. A simulated 25% reduction in partner-change rates increased the proportion of GUD caused by HSV-2 to 56%, following relatively large decreases in chancroid and syphilis. CONCLUSION: Behavioral change may make an important contribution to relative increases in genital herpes.
Authors: J M Pickering; J A G Whitworth; P Hughes; M Kasse; D Morgan; B Mayanja; L Van der Paal; P Mayaud Journal: Sex Transm Infect Date: 2005-12 Impact factor: 3.519
Authors: Anna M Foss; Peter T Vickerman; Philippe Mayaud; Helen A Weiss; B M Ramesh; Sushena Reza-Paul; Reynold Washington; James Blanchard; Stephen Moses; Catherine M Lowndes; Michel Alary; Charlotte H Watts Journal: Sex Transm Infect Date: 2010-11-08 Impact factor: 3.519
Authors: Gabriele Riedner; Jim Todd; Mary Rusizoka; Donan Mmbando; Leonard Maboko; Eligius Lyamuya; Oliver Hoffmann; I MacLean; Heiner Grosskurth; Richard Hayes Journal: Sex Transm Infect Date: 2006-09-13 Impact factor: 3.519
Authors: R G White; E E Freeman; K K Orroth; R Bakker; H A Weiss; N O'Farrell; A Buvé; R J Hayes; J R Glynn Journal: Sex Transm Infect Date: 2008-10 Impact factor: 3.519
Authors: Esther E Freeman; Richard G White; Roel Bakker; Kate K Orroth; Helen A Weiss; Anne Buvé; Richard J Hayes; Judith R Glynn Journal: Vaccine Date: 2008-12-09 Impact factor: 3.641
Authors: Laith J Abu-Raddad; Amalia S Magaret; Connie Celum; Anna Wald; Ira M Longini; Steven G Self; Lawrence Corey Journal: PLoS One Date: 2008-05-21 Impact factor: 3.240
Authors: Jan A C Hontelez; Mark N Lurie; Till Bärnighausen; Roel Bakker; Rob Baltussen; Frank Tanser; Timothy B Hallett; Marie-Louise Newell; Sake J de Vlas Journal: PLoS Med Date: 2013-10-22 Impact factor: 11.069